The UK is experiencing a loss of essential skills and supply chains necessary to achieve its net zero goals, as an increasing proportion of jobs, investments, and innovations in the energy sector are relocating overseas.
The 41st Energy Transition Survey, released today by the Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce, in collaboration with Johnston Carmichael and D2Zero, reveals a concerning flight of activity and expertise from the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS).
Among more than 100 companies engaged in the sector, the survey indicates that two-thirds plan to expand their workforce internationally within the next five years.
Nearly half of the respondents have reported that employees are already leaving the UK to pursue opportunities in other energy markets, driven by a lack of domestic confidence, uncompetitive policies, and insufficient viable projects.
Worryingly, firms expect that by 2030, the majority of their operations will be based abroad, with the critical turning point anticipated around 2027-28.
In spite of the UK’s declared goal to spearhead the energy transition, the findings highlight stagnation in activities related to renewables, electrification, and decarbonisation technologies.
Businesses warn that continuing down the current path may permanently damage the UK’s capacity to achieve net zero using local supply chains.
Russell Borthwick, Chief Executive of Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce, said: “This is a wake-up call for policymakers. We are training a world-class workforce and building the technology to lead the energy transition – but that talent and investment is increasingly being deployed overseas.
“You cannot deliver net zero by exporting your industrial base. If we continue to erode competitiveness through incoherent energy policy and excessive taxation, we risk offshoring the entire supply chain that is essential to the UK’s future energy system.”
Now in its 41st iteration, the survey monitors trends in industry confidence and activity across oil, gas, and low-carbon energy sectors. The findings from this year underscore a worsening crisis in domestic confidence, with the value of work within the UKCS declining across all five assessed categories, including renewables.
The share of activity centred around oil and gas remains mostly consistent since 2022, while projections for diversification by 2030 still fail to meet the requirements for achieving net zero targets.
Notable findings include:
- 66% of companies anticipate increasing their international workforce by 2030.
- 91% endorse new North Sea licenses where emissions are lower than imports.
- 89% believe that abolishing the Energy Profits Levy (EPL) would enhance investment and job creation.
- 90% feel that the lack of an energy strategy from the Scottish Government is undermining investor confidence.
- Nearly half are convinced that green energy jobs will never completely replace the lost roles in oil and gas.
For the first time in the report’s two-decade history, market fundamentals such as commodity prices and demand have been overshadowed by UK policy as the foremost long-term concern for the sector. UK tax and licensing regulations are now identified as the first and third most urgent issues highlighted by participants – both of which are under domestic jurisdiction.
Mr Borthwick added: “We’ve had enough consultations. The answers are already on the table. A coalition of trade unions, academics, business leaders and sustainability groups recently published a clear way forward through the North Sea Transition Taskforce. This is the solution government requires. The North Sea doesn’t need a bailout – just stability, vision and fairness.”
Mark Stewart, Head of Energy, Infrastructure & Sustainability at Johnston Carmichael, said: “This survey reinforces what we are hearing daily from the companies we advise: that uncertainty and inconsistency in UK energy policy are now bigger threats to investment than commodity prices or global market trends.
“The energy transition isn’t failing because of a lack of ambition – it’s failing because of a lack of execution. Businesses are ready to invest, innovate and diversify, but they need stable, predictable conditions to do so. Right now, the economics simply don’t stack up for many green projects.
“We are seeing a growing trend of skills, capital and capability moving overseas – particularly in areas like offshore wind, carbon capture and decarbonisation technologies. That’s deeply worrying, because it’s the same supply chain we’ll need to deliver a net zero system here in the UK.
“There’s still time to reverse that trend, but it will require faster project approvals, a stable tax regime, and coordinated policy leadership. If we can bridge the gap between today’s oil and gas activity and tomorrow’s clean energy projects, we can create a sustainable path forward for both our economy and the environment.”
Bob Drummond, CEO of clean energy group D2Zero, said: “The UK has the talent, the technology and the track record to lead the global energy transition – but we are now at serious risk of falling behind due to fragmented thinking and short-term policymaking.
“This report lays bare a critical truth: if we don’t act decisively, the infrastructure and ingenuity we need to build a low-carbon future will be deployed elsewhere. And once that capability is gone, it will be extremely difficult to rebuild.
“Energy transition isn’t a switch we flip overnight – it’s a series of complex, interconnected projects that require sustained momentum. A coordinated national delivery plan to bridge the gap between where we are and where we need to be will ensure progress is practical, investment is aligned, and no region or sector is left behind.
“From offshore electrification and carbon capture to advanced decommissioning and hydrogen, the UK has real advantages. We need to create the right environment to keep projects moving and capital flowing, to ensure high-value jobs and strategic independence.”
The Chamber has urged both the UK and Scottish Governments to embrace the recommendations of the Taskforce, expedite the Acorn carbon capture initiative, and establish the necessary conditions to encourage investment in offshore wind, hydrogen, and grid capacity. Additionally, it contends that terminating the EPL by 2025 and granting targeted new licenses could release billions in economic potential and safeguard thousands of valuable jobs.
