Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, is set to make a brief visit Aberdeen today [Monday 2 June] as part of his campaign trail, marking a significant moment in the party’s growing ambitions north of the border.
The leader of Reform is anticipated to focus on the city, aiming to exploit worries regarding the future of offshore jobs. His party has already persuaded four councillors from Aberdeenshire to join – and he is optimistic about making strides in next year’s Scottish Parliament election. Recent surveys indicate that the North East Holyrood area is ready to elect Reform MSPs to parliament. Mr. Farage is expected to be accompanied by Reform MP Richard Tice during his visit.
The visit comes amid a surge in support for Reform UK more generally in Scotland, with recent polls suggesting the party could soon overtake both Labour and the Conservatives to become the main opposition at Holyrood.
Once considered a political outsider in Scotland – where he famously required a police escort out of Edinburgh in 2013 -Farage now returns to a changed landscape. As The Telegraph notes: “Less than a decade ago, he was forced to seek refuge in a pub and required a police escort after he was chased out of Edinburgh by angry locals. But now support for Reform is surging north of the border, as locals become increasingly disillusioned with the SNP and Labour alike.”.
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Farage’s visit coincides with the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, a contest widely seen as a bellwether for Reform’s prospects in next year’s Scottish Parliament elections. According to polling expert Sir John Curtice: “Reform now pose a significant threat to the Conservatives’ and Labour’s prospects at Holyrood too. More than one in four of those who voted Conservative in last year’s Westminster election and nearly one in five of those who backed Labour have now switched to Reform.”
Reform UK’s prospects in Scotland have improved dramatically, with the party now polling as high as 20% and projected to win around 21 seats in the 2026 Holyrood election—potentially overtaking Labour and the Conservatives to become the main opposition. The party’s rise is largely at the expense of the Conservatives, with a significant share of former Tory and some Labour voters shifting to Reform. However, experts caution that Reform’s appeal is concentrated among pro-Brexit, anti-independence voters and that Farage remains deeply unpopular with many Scots, limiting the party’s ceiling to around 20%. Despite these challenges, even a result near that margin would represent a remarkable breakthrough for a party that only recently established a presence in Scotland.
