North East Scotland is contending with the severe economic and social ramifications of an exceptionally wet January, following an initial period of heavy snow and subsequent thaw.
The region has experienced relentless rainfall, attributed by experts to a “blocked weather pattern” that has stalled the jet stream and prevented drier conditions. This climatic anomaly has led to significant disruption across vital sectors, highlighting the increasing vulnerability of businesses and infrastructure to extreme weather events.
The scale of the precipitation has been extraordinary. Aboyne in Aberdeenshire recorded over 277mm of rain in January, approximately four times its monthly average. For Aboyne, this marked the wettest January since records began there in 1989.
Aberdeen itself has endured a prolonged absence of sunshine since 21 January, marking the longest sunless period in the area since Met Office records commenced in 1957.
In stark contrast, Aviemore, located 65km west of Aboyne, received less than half its average January rainfall, underscoring the localised intensity of the weather system.
Across the wider UK, January 2026 has been a notably wet month, with the UK recording 117% of its long-term average rainfall, though with significant regional variations, including Cornwall experiencing its wettest January on record.
This persistent inclement weather has rippled through the local economy. North Sea oil operators have been forced to remove staff from installations as bad weather impeded supply lines, impacting operational continuity in a critical industry.
While specific financial figures for this disruption are yet to emerge, extreme weather events can incur substantial costs on the oil and gas sector, with some US companies reporting multi-million dollar losses from cold snaps.
The agricultural sector is also bearing a heavy burden. Kevin Gilbert, North East Chairman of NFU Scotland, described the “record levels of rainfall” as having a “serious impact for farmers.”
He stated: “Any low-lying fields are completely submerged,” and noted the difficulties in performing essential tasks like ploughing and moving livestock to higher ground.
“It’s a horrendous situation. It’s such a prolonged time, the whole of January, we’re not seeing it relenting, that’s the worry. It makes it more difficult to plan.”
Previous extreme weather in 2017-18 cost Scottish farmers an estimated £161 million, demonstrating the significant financial risk these events pose.
Infrastructure has also suffered, with Aberdeenshire Council finding it “challenging” to address pothole repairs amidst ongoing weather warnings and flood alerts. The council urged “everyone to take extra care when travelling – so please drive to the conditions and never ignore road closure signs.”
Despite these conditions, the annual Spectra festival of light in Aberdeen, which typically draws over 100,000 visitors and contributes significantly to the local economy, is proceeding, with organisers encouraging attendees to “stick to plans, wrap up warm, grab your wellies, and enjoy the festival.”
The broader UK faces a significant challenge with road maintenance, with the cost of fully repairing potholes in England and Wales estimated at nearly £17 billion as of March 2025.
The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), Scotland’s national flood forecasting and warning authority, issued 81 local flood warnings during January, with eight regional flood alerts and five local flood warnings remaining in force for coastal flood risk along the east coast due to high tides and large waves. SEPA works with local authorities to manage flood risk and provide critical information.
Meteorological explanations point to a powerful jet stream, strengthened by recent cold conditions in North America, propelling Atlantic low-pressure systems towards Scotland. Concurrently, high pressure anchored over Scandinavia has created a “block,” preventing these systems from moving on and leading to persistent, slow-moving rain bands.
Scientists warn that such intense rainfall events are likely to become more frequent due to climate change. Met Office figures suggest that a 1.5°C warming could lead to an increase of up to 16% in winter rainfall for Aberdeen and 13% for Aberdeenshire, compared to levels in the 1980s and 1990s. The Met Office projects that UK winters could be up to 30% wetter with rainfall intensity increasing by up to 25% by 2070 compared to 1990. This shift means that soils become saturated, and even moderate rainfall can quickly lead to flooding, a phenomenon increasingly observed across the UK.
While the immediate focus is on managing the current disruption, the longer-term implications for the region’s economy and resilience to a changing climate remain a significant concern.
