North-east Scotland, historically a European centre for oil and gas, is facing a pivotal “make-or-break period” as it navigates the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, according to a leading expert.
Professor Paul de Leeuw, director of the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University (RGU) in Aberdeen, highlights a “Goldilocks zone” over the next five years, crucial for ensuring the decline in the oil and gas workforce is offset by growth in the green energy sector to prevent a permanent loss of vital skills and employment.
A recent report from RGU’s Institute projects that up to 18,000 jobs could be lost from the offshore energy workforce in the region by 2035, averaging approximately 1,600 job losses annually. Currently, North-east Scotland accounts for around one-third of the UK’s 115,000 offshore oil and gas positions and one-quarter of its 154,000 total offshore energy roles.
The regional offshore energy sector currently sees roughly 90% of its workforce employed in oil and gas, with only 10% in renewables. However, by 2035, projections suggest that between 55% and 70% of these jobs could shift to the green energy sector.
Despite the challenges, the region is deemed “already well positioned” to capitalise on the expansion of renewables, particularly offshore wind. The UK is one of five European nations expected to contribute significantly to Europe’s target of achieving 300 gigawatts of installed offshore wind power capacity by 2050, presenting a substantial opportunity for North Sea bordering countries, especially North-east Scotland.
Professor de Leeuw remarked: “A picture is now clearly developing of how the one-time oil capital of Europe has a genuine opportunity to redefine itself and reaffirm its status as a global centre of energy excellence.”
A critical advantage for the region is the high transferability of skills. “The workers who helped build one of the world’s most productive offshore basins have the skills to power its next chapter,” Professor de Leeuw stated.
He stressed that most energy jobs require “short-term upskilling rather than wholesale retraining,” offering the area “a structural head start that few other regions in the UK or Europe can match.”
Yet, he cautioned, “The Goldilocks zone is real and the window is closing. Once that skilled workforce disperses, it does not come back.”
The potential job losses of 18,000 mentioned in the report has been seized upon by Scotland’s newest MP, Aberdeen South’s Conservative MP Douglas Lumsden. He commented:
“The message from this report could not be clearer – get the UK drilling again before it’s too late.
“These alarming figures expose the catastrophic consequences of Labour and SNP’s presumption against oil and gas, which is pushing the industry off a cliff edge and forcing workers to move away.
“It’s insanity to think renewables alone can provide enough jobs and can satisfy our energy needs.
“With the prospect of a further 18,000 offshore jobs being lost by 2035, the desire of both Westminster and Holyrood governments to turn off the taps in the North Sea is an act of national self-harm and economic sabotage.
“If these bleak projections don’t act as a wake-up call for the next Labour Prime Minister to get drilling, then I don’t know what will.
“Both the new Prime Minister and John Swinney must drop their playground politics, back North Sea oil and gas and publish credible energy strategies that safeguard jobs across Scotland.”
UK Energy Minister Michael Shanks acknowledged the necessity of a balanced approach. “We aren’t turning off the taps on oil and gas in the North Sea but we are building up the jobs for the future,” he affirmed. Shanks highlighted the existing thousands of renewable energy jobs across Scotland and the readiness of oil and gas workers to transition.
Scottish Energy Minister Stephen Gethins emphasised the Scottish Government’s commitment, noting £17 million from the Just Transition Fund in its latest round, part of over £85 million invested in 28 regional projects since 2022.
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However, Gethins criticised UK government policies, specifically the Energy Profits Levy, arguing it “drives an accelerated decline of North Sea oil and gas before renewables can be ready, putting that transition at risk.”
He advocates for North Sea oil and gas projects to be assessed on a case-by-case basis, considering climate compatibility and energy security, and for the UK Government to replace the Energy Profits Levy with a more equitable system.
The imperative for investment, policy alignment, and coordination is paramount to secure the region’s energy future. Professor de Leeuw concluded, “The North East of Scotland has the assets, the geography, and the people to make this transition work. What it needs now is the investment, policy alignment, and co-ordination to match.”
