North-east too close to call on election eve

03/07/2024

THE leaders of Scotland’s parties are set to hit the campaign trail for the final time today.

After well over a month of door-knocking and leafletting across the country, polls suggest it’s too close to call north of the border, including in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire.

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Across the region, only Aberdeen North’s Kirsty Blackman has repeatedly came out on top in the polls.

54% of the voting public in her constituency backed her in 2019, giving her an overall majority of more than 12,500.

Her main challengers are likely to be Gillian Tebberen of the Scottish Conservatives and Lynn Thomson of Labour.

The city’s other seat, Aberdeen South, is seemingly being targeted by Scottish Labour.

Currently held by SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, it would be seen as a monumental scalp should Labour’s Tauqeer Malik win the seat, especially after the party finished fourth (last) in 2019’s election, with less than 4,000 votes.

The Conservatives held the seat until Mr Flynn’s win in 2019, John Wheeler is standing for them this time round.

Across Aberdeenshire things get even harder to call. A series of boundary changes have condensed the seats in the North-east and North of Scotland.

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine has remained virtually the same, though some polling data suggests the seat that’s currently held by UK Energy Minister Andrew Bowie could turn yellow.

Mr Bowie is defending a majority of just 1.6% – the SNP’s Glen Reynolds is expected to run him close.

The new constituency of Gordon and Buchan takes in most of Richard Thomson’s current Gordon seat, and parts of the former Banff and Buchan constituency.

Again, it’s expected to be close between the SNP’s Mr Thomson and Harriet Cross of the Scottish Conservatives.

It could be one of the only seats across the country that the Conservatives gain, if polling data suggesting a Labour supermajority comes to fruition.

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East will be one of the most watched constituencies in Scotland, if not the UK.

David Duguid, who holds the current Banff and Buchan seat, was due to be standing to retain his position in the Commons.

However, a serious illness meant he was deselected and replaced by Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross, who’d previously said he’d be standing down as an MP at this election.

After widespread criticism, Mr Ross announced he would stand down as Scottish Tory leader and as an MSP should he win tomorrow, but will remain in Holyrood should he lose.

It’s expected to be a close-run battle between Mr Ross and Seamus Logan of the SNP while Labour’s candidate on the ballot, Andrew Brown, has been suspended by the party.

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