Aberdeen, the global asset manager, reveals President Trump’s current term is the only first 100 days where the S&P 500, Dow Jones and FTSE World have all fallen. Aberdeen looked back to 1993, when Bill Clinton won the election with his now famous “It’s the economy, stupid!” campaign.
The S&P 500 is down 891.04 points (14.7%), the Dow Jones down 5,855.39 points (13%) and FTSE World Index down 102.22 points (9.75%)* in Trumps first days as President to 21 April 2025.
George W Bush’s first 100 days saw both the S&P 500 and FTSE World fall but not the Dow Jones. And the falls paled compared to that being seen currently – down -93.08 for the S&P 500 and -25.86 for the FTSE World The remaining four presidents saw gains in all three markets during the first 100 days of their presidency.
Aberdeen looked at the performance of three indexes; S&P 500, Dow Jones and FTSE World at the start and end of the first 100 days of the last six presidents since 1993; Bill Clinton, George W Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Donald Trump.
Ben Ritchie, Head of Developed Markets Equities, Aberdeen, says: “The first 100 days of Trump 2.0 has been a stark illustration that when government and markets collide, investors tend to be the losers. While market volatility can bring long-term buying opportunities for patient, contrarian investors, it can also play havoc with investor expectations in the near term.
“While US Government policy is as unpredictable as it ever has been, we take comfort that our portfolios are focussed on high quality businesses that we believe over time will be able to navigate whatever is thrown at them. That, combined with attractive valuations, strong balance sheets and resilient dividends provides a strong underpin when markets are uncertain.”
Paul Diggle, Chief Economist, Aberdeen commented: “While the market initially expected the Trump presidency to unleash the animal spirits of corporate America amid tax cuts and deregulation, a more sober assessment has now set in. Trump is doing what he said he would on tariffs, and then some. While our base case expectation is that tariffs creep lower from here, there is profound uncertainty. The tariffs, and the uncertainty, are a stagflationary shock for the US economy (weaker growth, higher inflation), and equities have had to move to incorporate this.
“A broader re-assessment of the attractiveness of US assets (equities, bonds, the dollar) is underway. The US has gone through a decade or more of exceptionalism, outperforming the rest of the world in growth terms and attracting a lot of capital. Equities and the dollar are overvalued, even after recent sell-offs, as a result. While one scenario is that Trump continues to relent on the tariffs and US companies look attractive again – another is that high valuations, slowing growth, and profound policy uncertainty mean a structural outflow of investor capital from US assets is now underway.”
