The country faces a heightened risk of storms and increased rainfall this autumn and winter, as an “unprecedented” El Niño event intensifies in the tropical eastern Pacific. Forecasters at the Met Office have warned that this natural warming phenomenon is set to become the most significant since the 19th century, with sea temperatures projected to rise by more than 3°C in the coming months.
El Niño is officially declared when sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific exceed the long-term average by 0.5°C, triggering substantial shifts in global rainfall patterns and average temperatures.
Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office, underscored the severity of the situation, stating: “We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.”
He elaborated that while a typical El Niño might lead to a 1°C to 2°C rise in equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures, this year’s forecast implies that “2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences.”
Globally, the intensifying El Niño is expected to elevate the risk of drought across tropical regions, southern Africa, and north-east Australia. Conversely, north-western Europe, including the UK, is likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions as the autumn and early winter seasons unfold.
This warning follows a summer of extreme weather across the UK. July 2026 was recorded as England’s driest July in 190 years, with only 6.5mm of rainfall, representing just 10% of the long-term average. This prolonged dryness has pushed nearly three-quarters of England and all of Wales into drought conditions, placing immense pressure on water systems, agriculture, and infrastructure.
Reservoir levels across England had fallen to 62.6% of capacity, 16.3% lower than typically expected for this period, according to official figures. The National Drought Group has cautioned that drought conditions could persist into the new year, moving to weekly meetings to coordinate the national response to these volatile conditions.
Looking ahead, Met Office Science Fellow Dr Nick Dunstone indicated that El Niño events contribute to a rise in global average temperatures. He predicted that “2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed plus 1.5C above the pre-industrial period.” Professor Stephen Belcher, the Met Office’s Chief of Science and Technology, highlighted the interplay of natural variations and climate change, noting, “This large El Nino is a reminder that natural variations in the climate system are also at play, adding to the stresses of climate change.”
El Niño and Aberdeen: what it could mean
For Aberdeen, this heightens the likelihood of a wet, stormy autumn and early winter, as the weather system pushes the jet stream further south and drags more low-pressure systems and Atlantic rain into northern Scotland.
Meteorologist Sean Batty has told STV the event could help produce the UK’s wettest winter on record, though he cautions that Scotland’s month-by-month response to El Niño years has historically been inconsistent, with April tending to run colder and May typically milder. For a city already prone to North Sea storms and flooding, an intensified autumn and winter storm track raises the stakes for coastal flood defences, transport disruption, and offshore safety planning in the months ahead.
Recent weather in the region
Aberdeen has had an unsettled summer, running near or slightly below its typical August range of 12–17°C with frequent cloud and rain. Early August brought a spell of severe thunderstorms, with Met Office yellow warnings covering Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Perth and Aviemore on 4–5 August, forecasting 15–20mm of rain per hour, hail, lightning and a risk of localised flash flooding and transport disruption. Conditions have stayed mostly grey and breezy through mid-to-late August, with highs generally in the high teens Celsius, persistent cloud cover, and showers forecast most days into early September.
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Effects on business
The most exposed sector locally is North Sea oil and gas. EnQuest has already flagged that “extreme weather in the UK North Sea” disrupted its operations earlier this year.
With extreme weather in the area likely to hamper wind and solar output and worsen the risk of a winter gas supply emergency, as well as disrupt helicopter transfers, platform maintenance and supply-vessel schedules, the sector is under close watch as El Niño’s stormier pattern approaches.
