Nigel Farage is projected to become the next prime minister, according to a large-scale YouGov poll suggesting a dramatic collapse in Conservative and Labour support.
The seat-by-seat modelling, based on a 13,000-person sample taken over the past three weeks, indicates that if an election were held tomorrow Reform UK would secure 311 seats. While short of the 326 needed for an outright majority, the figure would make Mr Farage’s party by far the largest group in the Commons and leave him in pole position to form the next government.
The projection suggests Reform would make 306 gains, a historic increase from their current total of five MPs. Labour would fall to 144 seats, losing around two-thirds of the 411 won in last year’s landslide, while the Conservatives would slump to just 45 seats – their worst result in modern history.
The Liberal Democrats are forecast to win 78 seats, the SNP 37, the Greens seven and Plaid Cymru six, with three seats going to left-wing challengers. The figures exclude Northern Ireland constituencies.
The results would represent the lowest Labour seat tally since 1931 and would push the Conservatives into fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats for the first time in their history. Senior figures across both parties, including Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Robert Jenrick and Priti Patel, are projected to lose their seats.
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Reform UK has gained momentum since the last YouGov modelling in June, when the party was estimated to be 55 seats short of a majority. The latest projection suggests much of the party’s advance has come directly at Labour’s expense, with three-quarters of Reform’s projected wins drawn from Labour constituencies.
On vote share, YouGov estimates Reform UK at 27 per cent, Labour at 21 per cent, Conservatives at 17 per cent, Liberal Democrats at 15 per cent, Greens at 11 per cent, SNP at 3 per cent and Plaid Cymru at 1 per cent.
In theory, opposition parties could combine to block Mr Farage from becoming prime minister, but the numbers suggest this would be difficult in practice. If either Labour or the Conservatives abstained, he would still command the largest bloc of MPs and be in a position to lead the next government.
